Household daily-peak electricity load forecasting with statistical models

Author
Luciano Viola
View Count
2717
License
Creative Commons CC BY 4.0
Abstract

This article proposes to obtain a statistical model of the daily peak electricity load of a household located in Austin-TX,USA. The Box-Jenkins methodology was followed to obtain the best fit for the time-series. Four models provided a good fit: ARIMA(0,1,2), ARIMA(1,1,2), SARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1) and SARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1). The model with the highest Akaike Information Criteria was the ARIMA(1,2,2). However, the model with the highest forecast accuracy was the SARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1), which obtained an RMSE of 0.296 and a MAPE Of 15.00.

Household daily-peak electricity load forecasting with statistical models